One guy gets it... (Political)

[Jerry]

My take on the causes of the recession: Easy credit / greed. The only way the realestate industry could make large amounts or money was to increase the number of people who could get credit. So standards were lowered, mortgages were "bundled" and sold as investments, and insurance policies were developed to reduce the risk that mortgage lenders would loose money if the mortgages themselves went bad. These policies were also sold as investments, as the money comming in to pay the premiums appeared to produce excellent profits.

The mortgages failed. The insurance companies went bankrupt. Investment "bundles" lost 70% of their value or more. Comapnies and individuals whe had purchased these bundles found they lost tons of money. Credit dried up, causing decreases in consumer spending.

Unions accuse managment of greed, management accused the unions of greed and / or corruption. Both of these are side shows. Both have been around since the inception of unions and neither have ever caused the economic problems we see today. Contribute, yes, cause, no.

Governments, of course, encouraged greater use of credit so tax money would flow in, both in local and federal taxes. That way tax rates would not have to rise; as long as housing kept going up, property taxes, sales taxes, and spending to furnish houses kept the tax revenue flowing. The Fed was not going to do anything that might inhibit banking practices, such as demand a limit of 38% of income as a house payment. They were not going to pass restrictions on the investment 'bundles" that were seen as the source of an expanding real estate market.

Eventually, of course, the market collapsed, as there was very little real money involved, and all the investment potentiial was based on the unfounded assumption that few mortgages would fail and the real estate market would never decline. Very little actual money was in the system; it was all electrons chasing electrons.

Pardon me if this is getting a littlw long-winded, we now come to the heart of the matter: The Bailout.

First of all, these are my opinions. It seems to me to be an absurd hope that the Fed government can "fix" this problem. It can't. Why? Because most of us have no savings to speak of. Coupled with the loss of value in retirment funds and little or no equity in our homes, an uptick of spending is not in the works. The feds can bail our the Big 3 and all the banks it wants to; unless it can find some way to increase consumer confidence and spending, more of those paychecks are going to pay down credit cards, auto loans, and home mortgages and not going into the purchase of new homes and new cars. At best, government actions can keep a few banks from going out of business - and I am not convinced that is a good thing - and keep interest rates lower for the time being.

We will not, I think, see the rise in real estate and stock markets that we saw up to the end of 2007. The stock market gained around 6,000 points in only 4 years, close to half of its total value. (March 6, 2003 closing 7,673.99. High point: 12-7-07, closing at 13,625,28.)

Will the bailout succeed? It could, particularly the part that puts people to work building infrastructure projects. The rest is money down a rat hole. That part may keep a lot of banking and auto execs bringing home millions of dollars in bonuses, but won't help the rest of us.

All businesses face some degree of risk; companies that finance risk are most vulnerable to market fluctuations. I don't see the need to finance bad decisions. If GM goes out of business then some other auto company that made better decisions will flourish.

What is emerging is a new form of socialism: Private companies earn profits but government / taxpayers assume the risks of failure. I don't like it.

I expect Obama to be criticized for not "fixing" the problem by the people who helped crate it, the same people, like Allen Greenspan who as late as 2007 was encouraging people to take out sub-prime mortgages to finance real estate buys. The much-criticised Jimmy Carter pointed out the choices we had in his 1979 "Malaise" speech ( the word was never used):

We are at a turning point in our history. There are two paths to choose. One is a path I’ve warned about tonight, the path that leads to fragmentation and self-interest. Down that road lies a mistaken idea of freedom, the right to grasp for ourselves some advantage over others. That path would be one of constant conflict between narrow interests ending in chaos and immobility. It is a certain route to failure.

(Text of speech can be read at: http://www.americanrhetoric.com/spee...confidence.htm)

Seems old Jimmy was right. He was speaking primarily about energy, but included the financial markets as well. Its worth a read. Those who say they never saw the crash coming are simply lying.

So, we still have Carter's choices: live within our means, or suffer the consequences of not doing so. The decision seems to have been made: live beyond our means to "fix" the current problems and worry about paying the piper later, or bite the bullet and suffer the consequences of our past decisions now. I am deeply troubled by the decision to adopt the former route. To me this simply extends the bad decisons of the past rather than making the alternate choices first proposed 30 year ago.

[planedick]

Hopefullly

O'Bamma says he will fix it, but unless he puts money in the hands of consumers in large amounts it will not work. Giving money to business will never work because money flows the opposite way. Businesses don't give money to consumers, consumers buy the products generated by business, and it will not work the other way around. Government just doesn't seem to see how it works at all. They just want to give money to the banks to help them survive and the banks use the money to buy another bank that's in trouble. Now the bank will be back for more money to save it again and it will not get better.

Probably around $20,000 to all 200,000,000 or so taxpayers would probably work very nicely and would certainly be less expensive than what the congress has in mind.

[DGXSER]

We are expecting miracles from a pawn

Anyone who thinks we can elect the solution is batty as all get out. Those who believe that the person sitting in the oval office really runs this country or accomplishes a dang thing without the house and the senate being on board are crazy as can be.

I gave up long ago thinking that any election would make any difference to the route this country takes. The recession we are in is no more the fault of Bush than the good times of the 90s were the result of Billy Bob being in office. (Yes I still beleive he should be making little rocks out of big rocks like the rest of the citizens that commit purgery and fraud on the people.) Or that Reagan made the world so great in the 80's. They just were lucky or unlucky to be in office when good things or bad things happened. If we happen to climb out of the hole in the next four years, it will be because of some innovative thing we come up with that the world will buy instead of us buying everything from the rest of the world. Nothing to do with what face with a name is sittin in that chair. JMHO.

[trbig]

The stimulus checks they sent out last year (Which is going to make this years tax rebate suck!) didn't do well either. People went out and bought plasma TVs and stimulated China's economy... not ours.


Tod

[prometheus578]

I enjoy being stimulated... and a check would be nice, too.

[Rasputin]

Not all to China

The stimulus checks they sent out last year (Which is going to make this years tax rebate suck!) didn't do well either. People went out and bought plasma TVs and stimulated China's economy... not ours.


Tod

If you think of all the jobs it took besides the manufacture of those products there was still a fair amount of economic stimulation to the US. Everything from the shipping to customs to freight to wholesalers and cost to merchandisers and retailers and sales people and trucking and accountants and tax personelle, advertising etc. The list goes on and on. So it does stimulate things maybe just not in such a noticeable way. But every person who handled that merchandise or put gas in the truck hauling it, or for that fact produced the gas to haul it. Everyone else has a piece of that Plasma tv before it graced someone living room. JAT

[planedick]

It's all about the ice cream

From a teacher in the Nashville area


We are worried about "the cow" when it is all about the "Ice Cream"


The most eye-opening civics lesson I ever had was while teaching third grade this year. The presidential election was heating up and some of the children showed an interest. I decided we would have an election for a class president.


We would choose our nominees. They would make a campaign speech and the class would vote.


To simplify the process, candidates were nominated by other class members. We discussed what kinds of characteristics these students should have. We got many nominations and from those, Jamie and Olivia were picked to run for the top spot.


The class had done a great job in their selections. Both candidates were good kids. I thought Jamie might have an advantage because he got lots of parental support. I had never seen Olivia's mother.


The day arrived when they were to make their speeches Jamie went first. He had specific ideas about how to make our class a better place. He ended by promising to do his very best. Every one applauded.

He sat down and Olivia came to the podium.


Her speech was concise. She said, "If you will vote for me, I will give you ice cream." She sat down. The class went wild. "Yes! Yes! We want ice cream."


She surely would say more. She did not have to. A discussion followed. How did she plan to pay for the ice cream? She wasn't sure. Would her parents buy it or would the class pay for it. She didn't know. The class really didn't care. All they were thinking about was the ice cream.


Jamie was forgotten. Olivia won by a land slide.


Every time Barack Obama opened his mouth he offered ice cream and fifty-two percent of the people reacted like nine year olds. They want ice cream. The other forty-eight percent know they're going to have to feed the cow and clean up the mess.

[Jerry]

It didn't start with Obama. here is an excerpt from writer John Weiner, interviewing Andrew Bacevich, author of Limits of Power:

"Jimmy Carter," he replies. "His famous ‘malaise' speech in 1979 was enormously prescient in warning about the consequences of ever-increasing debt and dependency. Carter's argument was that energy independence provided a vehicle for us to assert control of our destiny, and to reassess what we meant by freedom: is it something more than simply consumerism?

"But that speech was greeted with howls of derision. Ronald Reagan said we could have anything we wanted. There were no limits. Then we the people rejected Carter's warning and embraced Reagan's promise of never-ending abundance. That was a fateful choice."

So how did Regan reply? Here are a few excerpts for his 1980 speech where he announced his candidacy for president:

They tell us we must learn to live with less, and teach our children that their lives will be less full and prosperous than ours have been; that the America of the coming years will be a place where--because of our past excesses--it will be impossible to dream and make those dreams come true.

I don't believe that.

The people have not created this disaster in our economy; the federal government has. The key to restoring the health of the economy lies in cutting taxes.

So, Regan told the votoers that there wan no problem with our oil consumption, let alone the trend to consumerism. The problem was caused by government (Carter in particular) abd tax cuts would solve everything. Ice cream vs hard choices and action by citizens, and the Ice Cream won.

For the record, here is a quote from writer Paul Krugman:

For those who don’t want to do the math, Krugman’s “middle-income families with children” were paying a combined burden of 18.4 percent by 1988, up from 17.7 percent in 1980. For these middle-class families, Reagan—who did reduce taxes overall—had actually raised their tax burden.

Regan reduced taxes on the rich and increased taxes on the middle class, a policy which lead to increased deficite spending by the government. It put us into an even deeper hole, greater than it had been under Carter.

Ice cream. Regan and the Republicans supplied it by the ton.

[planedick]

So

Which end of the cow do you take care of?????

Well, we now have a new President and I hope he does like he says he will. Most of all I hope he understands that when the Government gives money to people they will spend it on themselves which helps the economy. More importantly I hope he understands that giving money to business and banks that they will also spend it on themselves which will not help the economy at all. Banks have shown that they will buy up other failing banks and will have to come back for more or a bigger bank will fail.

[The Lorax]

I personally would love to blame someone for the economic downturn that we are experiencing at the moment. I am, however, reminded of that old addage about remembering the lessons of history. It seems to me that when we all grew up and didn't have to listen to our parents anymore, we forgot some important stuff, I seem to vaguely remember my mother telling me stories of her childhood in the 1930's, having to save for a couple weeks to come up with the money to go to the movies. My mother is still a miser with her money to this day. She lives well (two of my sisters live with her and take care of her) she's not wealthy by any means, but has always felt the need to live within her means. it wasn't terribly easy after my father passed in '95, but she took care of her own business, and with my sisters helping her out, she lives better than she would have otherwise. I know, I'm taking the round a bout way of saying what's on my mind, but I'll get there. the point is, we have forgotten the lessons of the past, when things got nice and easy over the last decade and a half, we blew every dime we had, borrowed ourselves silly, and generally repeated the ways of folks in the "roaring twenties" the details are not the same with this downturn, but the result is basically the same (to a slightly smaller extent) we didn't save for a rainy day, we didn't choose to live within our means, and now that the bill has come due, we're in a bad way. yes, there is some corporate greed going on, but I believe that "we the people" made this mess, maybe not totally, but we made it, and now we are going to have to clean it up. and another generation learns the lesson the hard way (most folks of a cognitive age during the '20s & '30s have left us for a better place so there was no one to remember history, now it repeat itself. So, what will I do about it? be more committed to living within my means, I have been trying to get a bit of a savings going (you know, a rainy day emergency fund....I put in $40 each pay period, I'm almost up to $300 hooray me!) I would be farther along with my savings but I found some stuff on the bay for the XS and well, I had the cash, so technically it was within my means. long drawn out point, we did this to ourselves (with help) I don't think we'll get help fixing it. (don't count on the FEDs being all that helpful, they're not that good at it, and they just don't care. It's all up to us, so lets get together and fix this mess! ok, I'm done with my random philisophical nonsense spurred by fatigue and Nyquil. have a nice day and ride safe

[QRFan]

just a thought....

I remember a story about a preacher visiting a man to buy some livestock.While visiting he invited the man to come to church. The man politely refused.He told the preacher that he would see some of the church people out on saturday nights -drinking,fighting & whoring around.He felt that church was worthless and a waste of time.The preacher said well I'm sorry you feel that way & I hope you will change your mind. They proceeded to look at the livestock for sale. The preacher said I'll take those over there. The man replied,oh no sir,those are old & sick .They've seen their better days why would you want to buy them? The preacher insisted.... the man said I can't sell those animals .What would everyone think of my Livestock buisness ? The Preacher replied, they would think that because you had some undesirable members ,that your whole herd was worthless & would be a waste of time doing buisness with you..........




I've been reading thru this thread & it seems several people have some very strong opinions on "unions" .First off all,I wouldn't lump all unions or members together... The trouble makers ,lazy worthless pieces of crap unfortunately are what sticks out just like an ugly zit in the middle of your forehead. I agree that a lot of people are taking advantage of the conditions that once had to be fought for, but it's the same in every aspect of today's world.What's the difference if it's the bosses son,cousin,uncle, a member of a lodge,a drinking buddy or some other "special edge" someone has & takes advantage of?? There will always be lazy people using the system to their advantage...

The problems of this country are not due to the wages of the working class & I find it amusing when other working stiffs think theirs a dimes worth of difference btwn any of us.It doesn't matter if u r management,line worker,computer programer,construction,or flipping burgers.The companies employ each of us until the exact second they no longer need you & wham,,,watch out for the door that's trying to hit u in the @ss. It's sad that the economy had to nose dive for a lot of people to learn this. These same people say we have out lived the need for unions.Companies are not your friends,not saying that all are bad but they definitely don't give a darn about any of us. We're ALL trying to increase our wages & better our lives & I applaude anyone able to accomplish that . I believe If it were not for unions fighting to raise wages,conditons & benefits....those working non union would NOT be making the money that they are making. Non union shops pay higher wages to attract good employees who could sometimes make more money working union.


Now we could debate union/ non-union till our great grandkids had kids & never come to an agreement.There are good and bad points & like the buisnesses of this country,the Unions could use some restructuring too. Several of them have become a buisness themselves & they cater to the companies more than they represent their workers. Eventually the union members are going to have to step fw & fix the problems within the organization because You need a healthy balance of power btwn employees & company.The Unions need to hold their members as accountable as they do the companies they work for.It's changing & I see it everyday, a lot more people in the Union are losing their jobs because they just are not worth a damn & REAL union members are tired of carrying their sorry asses.Like everything else,however,it'll take time to turn things around .

Meanwhile ,Instead of fighting amongst ourselves(union/non-union),and letting the "1% rule America",I think we should be working together. As long as we fight among ourselves & blame each other ,we fail to focus on the core problems. "The meek are inheriting the earth".. My appologies to anyone that is offended by that but let me explain. Look around you,many of the people in possition to make decisions won't!They want to get paid for the possition but they won't do their job.They will not open their mouth.No one wants to be held accountable or buck the system. They just roll with the flow .Everyone's guilty of it whether its the union workers who get pissed at their peers for not pulling their weight & won't say anything. (They don't want to make waves but they can discipline their own if they choose to........ )or the management who won't fire the guy &make it stick. It's just easier to bitch about it ,I guess. Homeland security is another example of the passive people we've become ,it's a farce sold to the public at a high price(background checks to work by the water ways,,airport security... drug tests... etc)..so many people throwing away their rights including privacy ,looking for protection in return.Everything comes with a price & freedom is not worth selling at any price yet we give it away everyday. It seems the Human race is wading in the shallow end of the gene pool..... It's time to Stop pointing fingers & waiting around for someone else to fix the problems..... We need to get some testicular fortitude ,step up to the plate & take charge ..

[prometheus578]

Speaking as an ugly forehead zit, I resent you comparing me to union members!

Union members are ignorant, undisciplined, treacherous....
I knew a union member once. She had a little "workplace relationship" with the union shop steward at her place of employment.
I cancelled her other "union" membership... I fired her.
She lost all her benefits, security and retirement options.
I run an independant shop now.
No more having to listen to whining grievances or having to put up with non-productive performance.
Someday, maybe I'll hire another worker... but it won't be an old union member.
I'd be looking for someone, maybe twenty years younger. Someone who's trainable and highly productive... you know, someone who really puts out, etc.

[planedick]

Luckily

I learned about the union experience the first day on my first job. I went to work for Ingersoll Rand in Painted Post, NY in 1961 as a grinder of welds. A dirty job no one else wanted. The first day I discovered I could make 3 times the number of peices required which should get me 3 times the pay since it was peice rate and the rate was $1.12/hr. The next day when I went to work there was no time card there for me. I went to see the shop foreman and he took me to see the shop steward (union leader). I was told to "Slow down kid, you make the rest of us look bad". I said I wanted to make the extra money, but they wouldn't allow it as they had modified my production report to show only time and a half which was two days work done and I should go home as my work for the day was already done. The rest of the time in the department I worked the first four hours and napped the rest of the time. The shift was 11 PM to 7 AM and the foreman would come around about 6:30 AM to wake me up.

The company didn't miss this at all. When the summer was nearly over they sent me and another performer to work with the "Dutchman" who was in charge of the maintenance and power house. We were given a really bad job, rattling tubes in a boiler that was between two others that were running. It was at least 120 degrees in there. We figured a way to use fans to circulate cool air from the floor area and went to work. Three weeks later it was finished, but we were told that was impossible as it always took 2 months to do that before. Inspection showed that we had really done a good job so the company moved us to shop 22 where the really big compressors were assembled and tested. Nobody worked there with less than 20 yrs service. We lasted there until around Christmas time when a union man challenged us and was really mad and said he had members laid off for the winter who had over 7 yrs service and of course we were immediately let go.

I only worked for one other union shop, but it was run by the maintenance gang which I was a member of and pay and benefits were good. The rest of my jobs were non union where I figured my performance would get me the best deal. Of course I was wrong on that account too. Companies, with a few exceptions, really don't care about the workers. The best thing I did for me was to start my own business and be a real corporation. I wish I had done that much earlier. There is nothing like being your own boss. If things aren't going well, you know who to blame and who can change it. I highly recommend it.

[QRFan]

sorry u feel that way.....

Well you can hire a younger worker but you generally trade speed for experience .As you consider that option,consider your own age..... As you get older you'll not be as quick & agile.However you will probably be alot more organized& experienced , so when you do something it's right & takes less time than the younger person running with no direction. Older people union or not are set in their ways,period. It's good when the older can teach the younger,that why there should be both on the job if possible.What the younger lacks in experience balances with his/her energy & ability to learn.......... As far as the woman, she probably needed fired & I commend you but her relationship with the shop stewart is human nature not union nature....... & yes you are the same as all other working stiffs union or not whether you like it or not. Everyone is trying to make a living .It's a shame that you are so set in your ways that you miss out on some very good employees but it's your right to believe what you want.

Union members are ignorant, undisciplined, treacherous....

That could be said about a lot of people & is probably true about some of the people you have met. Others may just act that way because they know thats all you expect from them & they have a grudge with you ,the same as you do them. Like I said before we can argue back & forth all day,thats what the powers that be want us to do,,,point fingers ,blame each other for the crisis the country is in & never turn our focus on the real problems.Not sure who said divide & conquer but that phrase popped in my head . That's what is happening here "The rich get rich,the poor stay poor,the cops get paid to look away as the 1% rules America".......... I hope you can enjoy the rest of your weekend prometheus. I truly have no harsh feelings towards you .Being a union member, as are some others here ,I feel like we should live & let live. I do my job & i expect to get paid for it. The same as any other person on this earth. I want a fair wage so I can pay my bills ,feed my kids & still be able to take vacations,put gas in my bike & save some money.The ones who are looking for a free ride are an embarassment to America Union or not .If you are a fair & good employer to work for, then your shop doesn't need a union. Everyone is not like you however & does not treat their employees well unless they have to. Why you called yourself a zit is strange to me? I was not referring to anyone except those looking for a free ride. One last thought...... The way you lump everyone in together,you force union members to defend themselves here when we are not the lazy -asses you speak of nor are we proud of them either...... I do not assume because you have a shop that you are like other buisness owners. I give you the benefit of the doubt until you prove otherwise......

[TopCatGr58]

Hey QR,

Prom didn't put enough/any smilies in his post! He was referring to his Ex-wife.....I think. HE does this tongue in cheek thing a lot, most of us know it when we see it, but you're still relatively new here!
T.C.